Philadelphia vs. New England

Bettors don't want to believe anything is pre-determined. Who cares that Seattle scored on a safety to open their game against Denver four years ago? Who cares that the Pats took a 7-0 lead on Seattle three years back? The Broncos jump out to a 3-0 lead over Carolina two years ago - so what? Both teams still have a good shot at winning, right? Actually no, not really. Let?s have a look at the numbers which tell a different story. Through the first 51 Super Bowls, the team that has scored first has won an amazing 75% of the time (38-13) and has gone 37-12-2 against the spread in the process. It doesn?t matter if that team was the underdog or the favorite? the team to put up points first has a huge advantage in winning this game. The last seven Super Bowls have seen the YES come through on this prop bet six out of seven times. New England?s epic comeback last year was the lone loss. Over the past 29 years, the YES on this has hit 19 times (66%). At a 66% win rate, the fair line on this bet is around -195. At the longer term rate of 75%, the fair line is -300. Yet, we get odds of -170 on this bet, providing value. Bet the YES on this prop.