2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 13, 2008

13

New York at New England

Thursday 11/13 08:15 PM Eastern

3 units on New York +3.5 (-140) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

This game has suddently become a huge AFC East battle, as the winner will sit alone atop the AFC East. The Patriots have managed to survive without the services of Tom Brady, but will have a difficult challenge tonight. The Jets represent a defensive challenge for the pourous offensive line of the Pats, and the still- inexperienced Cassel (who will be preparing on a short week for the first time ever). How are the Pats sitting at 6-3? They were a Super Bowl team a year ago, but somehow managed to land the league's easiest schedule this season. They have played teams with a combined 36-45 record, despite all four teams in their division standing above .500. Their out-of-conference wins have come against teams that are collectively 10-26! Those four wins were against teams that rank 22, 29, 30 and 32 defensively. Despite the poor defenses the Pats have faced, they have managed just 20.9 ppg, allowing 28 sacks in the process. The Jets come in with a team that has already dropped the QB 28 times. They have the 5th best run stop unit in the league in both yards allowed and yards per carry. That will put Cassel in a very vulnerable position - in plenty of 2nd and 3rd and long situations, where mistakes and drive ending sacks occur. While the  Pats average just over 20 ppg, the Jets have reached the 20 point mark in seven of nine games. I bring that up because these teams are now playing opposite roles. New England, with Brady last year, never scored less than 20 points in the regular season. Meanwhilwhile, the Jets of 2007 did not have Favre and reached 20 just five times. The one regular season game the Pats scored their lowest points was 20 against the Jets. That came with Brady. This year, no Brady and a better Jets stop unit. New York is going to be focused and breathing fire for this one, as this has become a heated rivalry and they are revenging four straight losses to New England. I like their chances at an outright win, but we'll take the points as insurance.

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