New York at Detroit

New York has played measured, first-half football in both games so far, up just 10-3 at the break in Nashville and tied 7-7 with Green Bay before the number ever got out of hand. That's not an accident: the Jets controlled the ball for nearly 39 minutes in that Tennessee win, exactly the kind of clock-eating approach that keeps a first-half total down. Detroit's split is messier. The Lions managed just seven combined points through two quarters against New Orleans before the game turned into a shootout after halftime, but they were down 27-10 by the break against Buffalo, a total that would blow this number up on its own. The difference is what did the damage: Buffalo's offense, not Detroit's, and New York isn't bringing anything close to that kind of firepower into this game. A ball-control Jets team against a Lions defense that's been fine early unless facing an elite attack should keep the first half controlled. Take the first-half UNDER in Detroit.