2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 22, 2007
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
New York at Dallas
Thursday 11/22 04:15 PM Eastern
4 units on New York +14.5 (-105) (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: LOSS
This is a potential letdown spot for both teams. The Jets are coming off a big win vs. the Steelers. Meanwhile the Cowboys are off a tough divisional game vs. Washington with their biggest remaining game of the year on-deck (next Thursday vs. the 9-1 Packers). That game vs. the Pack will in all liklihood determine homefield advantage for the playoffs in the NFC. It would be very difficult to expect the Cowboys to be up for this game vs. the Jets. The Cowboys showed that they are susceptible to the letdown (remember the MNF game vs. Buffalo prior to the Cowboys' game vs. New England?). While most view New York as a bad team, we think they are not so terrible. We saw a change earlier this season in Buffalo when they were forced to use Edwards at QB, and we are now seeing a change in the Jets under Clemens. It would be hard to think the Jets defense could keep them in the game, but this team held the Steelers to 16 points. The fact is the Jets have been in every game they have played outside of the opener vs. New England. Save that game, the Jets have played good and have been within 11 points of everyone on their schedule. The last two weeks vs. good teams (Washington and Pittsburgh), Clemens was at the helm and the Jets scored evenly 39-39. One could argue they are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now, and getting 14 from an opponent that is likely to be sleeping, provides a lot of value. Double-digit road underdogs vs. a team performing very well have covered at a 74% clip including 1-0 this season. Five teams have won games outright this season as a 7+ point underdog and three of the five have covered the next game, so don't expect a Jets letdown, expect the opposite on the national stage. J-E-T-S-Jets-Jets-Jets!
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