2003 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 07, 2003
New York at Buffalo
Sunday 12/07 04:15 PM Eastern
4 units on Buffalo -3 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64) RESULT: WIN
Drew Bledsoe is listed as probable but I expect him to play. The Patriots have struggled on offense this year, putting up just 16 points per game. Luckily for them, their defense has played very strong, limiting opponents to the same number of points per game. Buffalo definitely plays better at home. In fact, while they’ve lost by an average of 6 points on the road this year, they’ve won by an average of 7 points at home (while holding opponents to just 12.5 ppg). Buffalo’s offense got untracked last week, putting up three touchdowns against the Giants on the road. This week they have a good shot at doing it again against one of the league’s worst defenses (ranked 27th overall). The Bills, averaging nearly 150 yards per game on the ground over the past six, should have a lot of success in this area on Sunday. The Jets, with Chad Pennington back under center, are playing much better than they were earlier in the season. However, they now go on the road against the league’s 3rd best pass defense and 3rd best overall defense. Based on the Bills’ strong home performances and NY’s terrible defense, my Matchup Power Ratings tell the Bills they should be a bigger favorite (closer to a touchdown). Buffalo should be able to spoil New York’s Cinderella run.