2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 02, 2011
New York at Baltimore
Sunday 10/02 08:25 PM Eastern
3 units on New York PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: LOSS
These clubs played in the opener last season in a game won in New York by a defensive and physical 10-9 count. A lot has changed since then. Mark Sanchez was still trying to figure out defenses and threw for a grand total of 74 yards. This season he appears to have turned the corner and has better weapons, a growing confidence and better results. His numbers are vastly improved by 10% in completions and about a yard and a half per pass. The Jets were able to grind out over 100 yards rushing in that game, and with a markedly improved QB, they should keep the tough Ravens defense guessing. Joe Flacco found a new prize target in rookie Torrey Smith last week, and that combo is scary if the Ravens now have a downfield threat. But one game does not a career make. Time will tell if that was a fluke or something we'll see more consistently. Either way, I expect that won't be the case here with Darrelle Revis having something to say about it. This should be one of those games that turns into a battle for field position, much the same as last Monday night's 18-16 Cowboys win over Washington. In those kinds of games, the points loom large, especially when getting more than a field goal. The Jets are usually better as an underdog where they are 13-6 ATS in their last 19. After their weak showing last week vs. Oakland, I expect the Jets to be fired up and playing their best game of the season. The Ravens haven't been able to follow a big win of 14 points or more with another good performance, weighing in at 0-5-1 ATS in their last six when following a two TD or better win. Play on the Jets plus the points.