2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 28, 2011

28

New York at New Orleans

Monday 11/28 08:35 PM Eastern

3 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

The New York Giants are starting to repeat a familiar pattern under Tom Coughlin. They start the season off with a bang, carry it through the first half and then slowly begin to erode into obscurity. Over the last 2+ years the Giants are now 13-6-2 ATS in the first half of the season, and 4-17 ATS in the second half. Recently, the Giants had a stable of top running backs to rely on to pound the ball. But, that has disappeared. Over the last four games the running game has grounded to a halt: 98 carries for just 291 yards or less than 3 yards per carry. The abnsence of Ahmad Bradshaw has really hurt this offense and without a good running game, Eli Manning just isn't a top tier quarterback. Manning started off great this season after throwing a career high 25 INTs a year ago. But, he has now thrown four picks in his last four games because the running game has put the offense in bad down-and-distance situations. The Giants’ defense has not been up to the standards of what we have seen in the past, but what they do well is get pressure and that could halt some Saints’ drives tonight. Drew Brees went down six times vs. St. Louis, and they managed their second-lowest scoring output all season (lowest was one point worse at 20). The Giants have had two weeks to get ready for the Saints offense here, so I'm sure they worked on some defensive holes and new schemes to get to Brees. New Orleans is allowing just 17.2 points per game this season at home and I think they will deliver another good defensive performance tonight. The Saints run it up vs. bad teams but they aren't as offensively proficient vs. winning teams as they are now 6-1 to the UNDER in their last seven games when facing one. Totals of 50+ points are just 69-88 to the OVER since 1989 and 4-11 when a team is off a bye. Finally, the Giants have gone 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 road games with a total posted above 45. That includes a 14-4 UNDER mark under Tom Coughlin. I like the UNDER here.

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