2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 29, 2013

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


New York at Kansas City

Sunday 09/29 01:00 PM Eastern

1.5 units on New York +3.5 (-110) (risk 1.5 to return 1.5)  RESULT: loss

1.5 units on Game Total OVER 43.5 -107 (risk 1.5 to return 1.5)  RESULT: loss

I don't think a team could be looking any uglier than the New York Giants do after three weeks. They were supposed to be a playoff caliber team, but have started 0-3 with their last loss an incredibly embarrassing 38-0 beat down. While Peyton Manning continues to enter the record book, brother Eli has been quite the contrary with eight INTs through three games. And, last week for good measure, he was sacked seven times. How do they survive a Chiefs team that has reversed their fortune from a 2-14 team a year ago, to start 3-0? It's called the contrarian NFL, and as expected, bettors line up all over the Chiefs here. But, the Giants aren't as bad as they appear and the Chiefs aren't as good as they appear. The thing muddying our view? Turnovers! Kansas City is leading the league in turnover differential at +9 while the Giants are in the basement at -9! Turnovers are largely luck and tend to regress to the mean. So, there is a lot of line value here thanks to whacky luck. Tom Coughlin has been on the sidelines a long time, and seeing his team hit rock bottom a week ago is not going to sit well. With the Giants season is basically on the line, I look for a different team to take the field in this one. Teams that were shutout in their last game, and playing as a road dog have covered 64% of all games since 1989. Teams that lost their last game by 31 or more points cover 58% of the time in their next game as well. In their last 11 games following a stinker offensive performance (gaining under 250 yards), the Giants offense has come to life with nine of the those eleven going OVER the total. Manning is certainly capable, and you know he can't wait to get back on the field here. The Giants have taken the last five in this series and KansasCity is an awful 0-6 ATS the past three seasons as home chalk. Under Coughlin, the Giants are 37-25 ATS as a dog and 45-30 ATS in road games and 17-8 ATS vs. teams at .750 or better. The Coughlin-led G-Men are also 16-5 OVER in road games with a total in this range (42.5 to 45 points) and 13-1 OVER after scoring under 10 points last game.  I think the Giants offense gets redemption here and scores big. Play contrarian. Take New York and the OVER.

Giants 0 7 0 0 7
Chiefs 0 10 7 14 31



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