2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 11, 2011
New Orleans at Tennessee
Sunday 12/11 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Tennessee PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: LOSS
New Orleans is flying sky high after four straight wins (SU and ATS). This one looks easy as they are laying barely more than a field goal against a weak team. Be careful when things look to easy in the NFL. The Tennessee Titans are one of four AFC teams at 7-5 on the season, as the pursuit for the last wildcard slot looks to be a dog fight. They have seen an oddity occur as each of their last three games have finished with an identical 23-17 score, coming up on the winning side of the last two. The good news for them is that Chris Johnson has re-emerged as the running back that took the NFL by storm. He has rushed for 343 yards in the last two games with season-high yards in each of them. He will be vital in this one and should find ample space to roam, as the Saints run-stop unit is amongst the worst in the league allowing nearly 5 yards per carry. That will help keep the prolific Saints passing game on the sidelines, and diminish their opportunities. The Titans should get enough stops to be in this one to the end, as they are the 6th toughest NFL team to score on at 19.1 points per game. The Saints are lethal at home but they have had problems on the road where they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 roadies, including 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a road favorite. They score 40 points per game at home but just 25.6 on the road - a two touchdown per game difference! The Titans have been at their best as a home dog of +3.5 to +10 where they are a picture-perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five, and 9-2 ATS as a home dog overall in their last 11. This is a good letdown spot for the Saints. Take Tennessee and the points.