2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 16, 2011

16

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Sunday 10/16 04:15 PM Eastern

3 units on Tampa Bay PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

The public is lining up with the Saints here as a road favorite. It's not really a surprise given that the Bucs were trounced 48-3 last week. Who wants to back a team that lost by 45 points last week? Well, I guess I do. This is a pivotal game for the Buccaneers and what a difficult week it must have been. The Bucs were taken behind the woodshed last week in San Francisco.The media, fans, talk radio shows and coaching staff were brutalized. As a result of pride, I expect this team to come out answering the bell in this one with their "A" game which is pretty good. Despite the lopsided loss, the Bucs are still 13-7 in their last 20 games, while the Saints are 15-7 in their last 22. That hardly explains a +4.5 point home dog as the spread is based in large part to what happened a week ago. The Bucs aren't designed for a shootout, and they will be running a lot here against the Saints’ defense that is allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per carry. This is another juicy historical spot as teams that lose their previous game by 28 or more points have the oddsmakers padding their lines in their next game. When playing as a home dog, these teams have responded by going 67-46 ATS. Last week the Saints gave up 27 points to Carolina. Under Sean Payton, the Bucks are just 5-17 ATS following a game in which they allowed 6.5+ yards per play. They won the game barely by 3 points. Take a very motivated Tampa Bay getting more points than they should.

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