2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 09, 2008

09

New Orleans at Atlanta

Sunday 11/09 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Game Total UNDER 51 -110 (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

The public loves high-scoring teams and you can rest assured it juices the lines when they take the field. This one opened at 49 and is on the rise as the public lines up on what appears to be an easy OVER. Such lofty totals (50+) are usually reserved for two explosive offenses but I don't see that here. Since when is Atlanta expected to put up points like a pinball wizard in a gameroom? Yes, this team has been a pleasant surprise this season, but they still have a rookie QB. When is the last time Atlanta was featured in a game with a total posted higher than even 48? You have to go all the way back to November 17, 2002 - 95 games ago! These teams are possession offenses as they both control the ball for over 31 minutes per game. Third downs are not often made up of third-and-long, where they have to throw incompletions that stop the clock and elongate the game. That is where the fallacy of high-scoring teams sometimes occurs. Atlanta is going to run the ball on the Saints 4.34 rushing yards allowed per carry, and use the pass as a run just like the Saints - in ball control. The unsuccessful drives will use a lot of clock, but so will the successful ones. After getting in shootouts for their first five games (51.6 ppg), New Orleans has slowed down as their last three games have averaged 47.6 per game with two UNDERs. I like this game to go UNDER the posted total.

NFL

 

Last 20.2 years

Wins Losses Units
2396 2098 +220.38

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