Will there be a huge game-breaker play in this game? Will one team score a long touchdown of 45 or more yards? Your intuition probably says that it's not that liklely. But, the stats speak otherwise. Over the first 48 Super Bowls, a team has scored a 45+ yard touchdown 31 times (64.6% of the time). And, the games that didn't have a long touchdown were front-loaded in the early years. In the first 20 Super Bowls, eight of the games saw the longest touchdown remain under 45 yards. But in the last 28 Super Bowls, only nine games have failed to produce3 a touchdown of 45+ yards. That's just 32.1% of the time. So, we can expect roughly a two-thirds chance of winning this bet, while getting positive odds. Take the OVER on this prop bet.
These Pro Picks were released to clients on January 27, 2015 at 4:51PM ET.
NFL
New England vs. Seattle
February 1, 2015
6:30 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 44.5 yards +110 (risk 1.5 to return 3.15)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1.5 units on Seattle +2 (-115) (risk 1.5 to return 2.8)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 48 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on 1st ¼ UNDER 9.5 +100 (risk 2 to return 4.2)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1 unit on Fourth Quarter OVER 13.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1 unit on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th +160 (risk 1 to return 2.6)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th vs. 1st -265 (risk 2 to return 2.75)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2.5 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT -125 (risk 2.5 to return 4.5)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2.5 units on Scoreless Quarter = NO -335 (risk 2.5 to return 3.25)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1 unit on Team to Score First Wins the Game = YES -165 (risk 1 to return 1.61)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Either Team Scores 3 Straight Unanswered = YES -205 (risk 1.5 to return 2.23)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 -130 (risk 2 to return 3.54)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 44.5 yards +110 (risk 2 to return 4.2)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Total Penalties UNDER 15 -225 (risk 2 to return 2.89)
Result:
WIN
WIN
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