Bettors don't want to believe anything is pre-determined. Who cares that Seattle scored on a safety to open the game last year? Both teams still have a good shot at winning, right? Let's have a look at the numbers which tell a different story. Through the first 48 Super Bowls, the team that has scored first has won 75% of the time (36-12) and has gone 35-11-2 against the spread. It doesn't matter if that team was the underdog or the favorite ... the team to put up points first has a huge advantage in winning the game. The last four Super Bowls have seen the YES come through on this prop bet four straight times. Over the past 26 years, the YES on this has hit 17 times (65.3%). At a 65% win rate, the fair line on this bet is -185. At the longer term rate of 75%, the fair line is -300. Yet, we get odds of just -165 on this prop bet, providing value. Bet the YES on this prop.
These Pro Picks were released to clients on January 27, 2015 at 4:51PM ET.
NFL
New England vs. Seattle
February 1, 2015
6:30 PM Eastern
1 unit on Team to Score First Wins the Game = YES -165 (risk 1 to return 1.61)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Seattle +2 (-115) (risk 1.5 to return 2.8)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 48 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on 1st ¼ UNDER 9.5 +100 (risk 2 to return 4.2)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1 unit on Fourth Quarter OVER 13.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1 unit on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th +160 (risk 1 to return 2.6)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th vs. 1st -265 (risk 2 to return 2.75)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2.5 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT -125 (risk 2.5 to return 4.5)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2.5 units on Scoreless Quarter = NO -335 (risk 2.5 to return 3.25)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 44.5 yards +110 (risk 1.5 to return 3.15)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1.5 units on Either Team Scores 3 Straight Unanswered = YES -205 (risk 1.5 to return 2.23)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 -130 (risk 2 to return 3.54)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 44.5 yards +110 (risk 2 to return 4.2)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Total Penalties UNDER 15 -225 (risk 2 to return 2.89)
Result:
WIN
WIN
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