New England vs. Seattle

If the first-quarter is the proverbial tortoise, the fourth quarter in the Super Bowl is the hare. More often than not, the final quarter has been a score-fest in the NFL, both in the regular season and (especially) in the Super Bowl. By the time the 4th quarter rolls around, all the jitters are gone and it's no-holds-barred. The league average in the fourth quarter this NFL season was 12.4 (36% higher than the first quarter). In Seahawks games this year, even with their top defense, 12.0 points were scored on average in the fourth-quarter. In Patriots games, 13.13 points were scored on average. So based on those numbers, we might expect around 13 points in the 4th quarter this year. However, That's not the whole story. In the Super Bowl, these figures have traditionally increased. In fact, 18 of the last 27 Super Bowl games (67%) have seen the fourth quarter go OVER the posted total. Seven years ago, the Pats and Giants combined for 21 fourth quarter points in a game in which just 31 total points were scored. Six years ago, after seeing just 27 points scored in the first three quarters combined, 23 points were put up in the final quarter by Arizona and Pittsburgh. Five seasons ago, there was a push with 14 points scored in the 4th. Four years ago, the Packers and Steelers put up 18 fourth quarter points. Three years back, the Giants and Patriots only scored 6 in a rare fourth-quarter UNDER. Two years ago, 14 points were scored by the 49ers and Ravens, going OVER the total. Last year was another rare UNDER (7 points scored) as the game was well out of hand with Seattle leading 36-8 going into the fourth so neither team was really pressing any more. In this game, I think the offenses will be clicking by the fourth quarter and there's a high chance the game will not be out of reach yet like last year. With a 67% historical trend backing us, go with the OVER here in the 4th quarter.