New England vs. Seattle

This season, an average of 9.1 points per game where scored in the first quarter, so a line of 9.5 on this seems about right on the surface. Just like last year, in this game we have the top scoring offense in the league in New England facing the #1 defense in the league in Seattle. Seattle games this season averaged 7.9 first-quarter points while New England games averaged 12.4 first-quarter points per game. Average the two and we get 10.2 points which is higher than this total. So why take the UNDER here? As the magnitude of this game seems grows each year, the stakes only get bigger. That results in an inevitable "feeling out" process early in the game. Drew Brees was quoted as saying about this game that "It took me to till third series to settle down." Bill Romanoski said of his Super Bowl, "I didn't remember first four plays." Each team has prepared meticulously but they still need some time to figure out what they can accomplish versus their opponent. Above all, they are trying to avoid big mistakes early on. So the play calling, and the play on the field, tend to be conservative in the early going. In the history of the Super Bowl, the first quarter has proved to be a low scoring one as an average of 8.4 points per game has been scored. And, it's been getting lower-scoring as the game gets bigger and bigger. Fourteen of the last sixteen Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points scored in the first quarter. Eleven of the last fifteen have had fewer than 10 points scored. One of the years this bet went OVER the total was in 2011 but that came only thanks to a very rare pick-6 touchdown. Three years ago, 9 points were scored. Two years ago, 10 points were scored. And last year saw 8 points scored, even with the safety from Seattle on the very first play from scrimmage. The last seven years have seen an average of 8.1 points scored in the first quarter (3, 3, 10, 14, 9, 10, 8) - and don't forget that includes the rare interception return for the touchdown in 2011. The quarterbacks in those seven games: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning (twice), Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson. So, don't just automatically fear Tom Brady here. Even in Super Bowl games that were expected to be very high-scoring, the first quarter has gone UNDER the total much more often than not. Seven years ago the total between the Giants and Patriots was 53.5. In that game, 3 points were scored in the first-quarter. Five years ago, the total in the Saints-Colts game was set at 56.5. The first-quarter total went under the 10.5 line. Three years ago the total was 53.5 and the first-quarter went UNDER. This game is not expected to be as high scoring as them which gives us even a further edge. With 11 of the last 15 Super Bowls producing 9 or fewer points in the first quarter, the UNDER is the play here.