2018 Season NFL Football Past Picks
February 03, 2019
This pick was released to clients on January 29, 2019 at 4:21PM ET.
New England vs. Los Angeles
Sunday 02/03 06:30 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Team to Score Last Wins the Game = YES (-180) (risk 1.5 to return 3.83) RESULT: WIN
Bettors don't want to believe anything is pre-determined. Who cares that Seattle scored on a safety to open their game against Denver five years ago? Who cares that the Pats took a 7-0 lead on Seattle four years back? The Broncos jump out to a 3-0 lead over Carolina three years ago. The Eagles jump out to a 3-0 lead last year over the Pats - so what? Both teams still have a good shot at winning, right? Actually no, not really. Let's have a look at the numbers which tell a different story. Through the first 52 Super Bowls, the team that has scored first has won an amazing 75% of the time (39-13) and has gone 38-12-2 against the spread in the process. It doesn't matter if that team was the underdog or the favorite - the team to put up points first has a huge advantage in winning this game. The last eight Super Bowls have seen the YES come through on this prop bet seven times. New England's epic comeback two years ago was the lone loss. Over the past 30 years, the YES on this has hit 20 times (67%). At a 67% win rate, the fair line on this bet is around -200. At the longer term rate of 75%, the fair line is -300. Yet, we get odds of -165 on this bet, providing value. Bet the YES on this prop.
|New England PatriotsPatriots||0||3||0||10||13|
|Los Angeles RamsRams||0||0||3||0||3|
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