New England vs. Atlanta

In his career, Patriots placekicker Stephen Gostkowski has kicked 332 field goals with just 50 of them coming at 47+ yards. That's just 15%. His average field goal made is from a distance of 34.8 yards. Atlanta's Matt Bryant has kicked 48 career field goals of 47+ yards out of 343 total (14%). His average made field goal is 34.8 yards. So why do we feel that there's much of a chance of a 47+ yard field goal in this game when that only happens on average around 15% of the time for these kickers? Out of 50 Super Bowls, there have only been 13 games with field goals of 45+ yards (26%). Fair odds on a 26% bet are -285. But has this changed recently? Maybe with the recent rule changes that favor offense, this percentage has gone up. Actually it's just the opposite. Over the past 12 Super Bowls, only two have seen a field goal made at 45+ yards. Since Super Bowl 41, nine of ten Super Bowls have had the longest field goal come in UNDER 45 yards. So, we have kickers that kick 47+ yard field goals at a 14-15% rate and a Super Bowl history that shows this rarely ever happens. Take the UNDER on this prop