These picks were released to clients on February 02, 2017 at 8:49PM ET.
img NFL

New England vs. Atlanta

February 5, 2017
img6:30 PM Eastern

In 2016, the average number of field goals per game was 3.32. Atlanta averaged 2.13 field goals made per game while New England kicked just 1.69 per game. So this total is about right based on those numbers. But, this is not just any game. This is the big game and the Super Bowl is a different animal. Teams are generally less conservative overall in the Super Bowl when all is said and done. It's all or nothing. The coaches do not want to leave anything on the field. If a team is ahead, they don't want to give their opponent any chance of coming back. If a team is behind, they are not playing to keep it close ? they are playing to win the game, no matter what. So, there are fewer field goals in the Super Bowl than in your average NFL game. Through the first 50 Super Bowls, there have only been 129 made field goals which comes to an average of 2.58 per game. That's nearly 25% less than the regular-season average. In only 13 of the 50 Super Bowl games have more than three field goals been made! That comes to just 26% and fair odds on that are -285. Yet, we get -110 odds here. This bet should come through about 75% of the time. Take the UNDER on this prop

2 units on 2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 (risk 2 to return 5.82)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on New England -3 (+100) (risk 1 to return 2)
Result:
WIN
2 units on 2 units on First Quarter UNDER 13.5 (risk 2 to return 5.48)
Result:
WIN
2 units on 2 units on Fourth Quarter OVER 14 (risk 2 to return 5.6)
Result:
WIN
2 units on 2 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th (risk 2 to return 7.5)
Result:
WIN
2 units on 2 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT (risk 2 to return 5.67)
Result:
WIN
2 units on 2 units on Team to Score First Wins the Game = YES (risk 2 to return 0)
Result:
LOSS
1.5 units on 1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 49.5 yards (risk 1.5 to return 5.17)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on 1.5 units on Either Team Scores 3 Unanswered = YES (risk 1.5 to return 3.81)
Result:
WIN
2 units on 2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 46.5 yards (risk 2 to return 6.1)
Result:
WIN
FINAL
1
2
3
4
O
F
New England Patriots img
0
3
6
19
6
34
Atlanta Falcons
0
21
7
0
0
28
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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