New England vs. Atlanta

Bettors don't want to believe anything is pre-determined. Who cares that Seattle scored on a safety to open the game three years ago? Who cares that the Pats took a 7-0 lead on Seattle two years back? The Broncos jump out to a 3-0 lead over Carolina last year - so what? Both teams still have a good shot at winning, right? Actually no, not really. Let's have a look at the numbers which tell a different story. Through the first 50 Super Bowls, the team that has scored first has won an amazing 76% of the time (38-12) and has gone 37-11-2 against the spread in the process. It doesn't matter if that team was the underdog or the favorite? the team to put up points first has a huge advantage in winning this game. The last six Super Bowls have seen the YES come through on this prop bet six straight times. Over the past 28 years, the YES on this has hit 19 times (68%). At a 68% win rate, the fair line on this bet is around -210. At the longer term rate of 76%, the fair line is -325. Yet, we get odds of just -160 on this bet, providing value. Bet the YES on this prop.