New England vs. Atlanta

If all quarters were created equal, then each would have a 25% chance of being the highest scoring and fair odds on this bet would be +300. But, not all quarters are created equal. In the 2016-17 season, the average points scored for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively, was 9.2, 13.9, 9.0 and 13.2. This is pretty close to the long term averages for modern NFL games. Based on those figures, it would seem that the 2nd quarter would be the best bet for highest-scoring. And this is exactly how the oddsmakers have set the odds. The odds for betting the 2nd quarter are just +165, providing very little if any value. But there is tremendous value on taking the 4th quarter because the oddsmakers are again not paying enough attention. They aren't looking enough at how Super Bowls, specifically, tend to play out. The average points per quarter for first 50 Super Bowls are: 1st: 8.16, 2nd: 11.74, 3rd: 9.80, 4th: 13.10. Yes, the Super Bowl is different! In last 26 years it's gotten even more pronounced: 1st: 8.69, 2nd: 13.85, 3rd: 11.65, 4th: 15.54. The 4th quarter has been the highest-scoring quarter in 12 of the last 21 Super Bowls (57%). At that rate, the odds you should be laying are -135. But, instead, we are getting +175 here. In terms of value, this is about as good as it gets!