2016 Season NFL Football Past Picks

February 05, 2017

This pick was released to clients on February 02, 2017 at 8:49PM ET.


New England vs. Atlanta

Sunday 02/05 06:30 PM Eastern

2 units on 2 units on Fourth Quarter OVER 14 (risk 2 to return 5.6)  RESULT: WIN

If the first-quarter is the proverbial tortoise, the fourth quarter in the Super Bowl is the hare. More often than not, the final quarter has been a score-fest in the NFL, both in the regular season and (especially) in the Super Bowl. By the time the 4th quarter rolls around in this game, all the jitters are gone and it's no-holds-barred. The NFL league average in the fourth quarter this season was 13.2 (44% higher than the first quarter). In Patriots games this year, even with their great defense, 10.6 points were scored on average in the fourth-quarter. In Falcons games, a sky-high 15.9 points were scored on average. So based on those numbers, we might expect around 13 points in the 4th quarter this year. However, that's not the whole story. In the Super Bowl, these figures have traditionally increased. In fact, 19 of the last 29 Super Bowl games (66%) have seen the fourth quarter go OVER the posted total. Nine years ago, the Pats and Giants combined for 21 fourth quarter points in a game in which just 31 total points were scored. Eight years ago, after seeing just 27 points scored in the first three quarters combined, 23 points were put up in the final quarter by Arizona and Pittsburgh. Seven seasons ago, 14 points scored in the 4th quarter. Six years ago, the Packers and Steelers put up 18 fourth quarter points. Five years back, the Giants and Patriots only scored 6 in a rare fourth-quarter UNDER. Four years ago, 14 points were scored by the 49ers and Ravens, going OVER the total. Three years ago was another rare UNDER (7 points scored) as the game was well out of hand with Seattle leading 36-8 going into the fourth so neither team was really pressing any more. Two seasons back, things returned to form with 14 fourth-quarter points and a resulting OVER. Last year was another rare UNDER in the fourth quarter with 11 points scored. In this game, I think the offenses under Matt Ryan and Tom Brady will be clicking by the fourth quarter and there's a high chance that the game will not be out of reach. With a 66% historical trend backing us, go with the OVER here in the 4th quarter.
Patriots 0 3 6 19 6 34
Falcons 0 21 7 0 0 28



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