2016 Season NFL Football Past Picks

February 05, 2017

This pick was released to clients on February 02, 2017 at 8:49PM ET.


New England vs. Atlanta

Sunday 02/05 06:30 PM Eastern

2 units on 2 units on First Quarter UNDER 13.5 (risk 2 to return 5.48)  RESULT: WIN

This season, an average of 9.2 points per game where scored in the first quarter of all NFL games. But, these are not two average offenses. Just like the past three years, in this game we have the top scoring offense in the league. Atlanta's games this season averaged 12.2 first-quarter points while New England games averaged 10.1 first-quarter points. Average the two and we get 11.14 points which is nearly 2 full points lower than this total, so there is already built-in value. In addition to that, I have strong reason to believe this game will stay low scoring in the first quarter. As the magnitude of this game continues to grow each year, the stakes only get bigger. That results in an inevitable "feeling out" process early in the game. Drew Brees was quoted as saying about this game that ?It took me to till third series to settle down.? Bill Romanowski said of his Super Bowl, ?I didn't remember first four plays.? Each team has prepared meticulously but they still need some time to figure out what they can accomplish versus their opponent. Above all, they are trying to avoid big mistakes early on. Players and coaches are nervous, and tight. So the play calling, and the play on the field, tend to be conservative in the early going. In the history of the Super Bowl, the first quarter has proved to be a low scoring one as an average of 8.3 points per game has been scored. And, it's been getting lower-scoring as the game gets bigger and bigger. Sixteen of the last eighteen Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points scored in the first quarter. One of the years this bet went OVER the total was in 2011 but that came only thanks to a very rare pick-6 touchdown. Here are the first-quarter scores the past five years; 9, 10, 8, 0, 10. The last nine years have seen an average of 7.4 points scored in the first quarter (3, 3, 10, 14, 9, 10, 8, 0, 10). That big zero came despite 52 points being scored in the game. The quarterbacks in those nine games: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady (twice), Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning (three times), Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson (twice). So, don't just automatically fear Matt Ryan and Tom Brady here. Even in Super Bowl games that were expected to be very high-scoring, the first quarter has gone UNDER the total much more often than not. Eight years ago the total between the Giants and Patriots was 53.5. In that game, 3 points were scored in the first-quarter. Six years ago, the total in the Saints-Colts game was set at 56.5. The first-quarter total went under the 10.5 line. Four years ago the total was 53.5 and the first-quarter went UNDER. This game is expected to be very high scoring, but history indicates that most of that scoring will come in the final three quarters after nerves have settled. And to boot, we have one team here with the league's top scoring defense. Take the first-quarter UNDER.
Patriots 0 3 6 19 6 34
Falcons 0 21 7 0 0 28



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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