New England at Seattle

The NFL opened this season by sending the last two Super Bowl teams right back at each other, and Seattle's 29-13 win back in February hid just how even these two rosters actually are. New England finished 14-3 and ranked fourth in the league in points allowed while scoring the second-most points in football. Seattle also went 14-3, allowed the fewest points of any team, and scored the third-most. Both sides are missing pieces on defense: Harold Landry, who led New England in sacks a year ago, opens the season on the physically unable-to-perform list, while Seattle is thin at safety with Ty Okada out and Nick Emmanwori questionable. New England got a boost of its own on the eve of the opener, locking up corner Christian Gonzalez on a record four-year deal that ends the contract standoff that had clouded his status. The bigger swing factor sits on Seattle's offense, which is breaking in first-time playcaller Brian Fleury and a backfield adjusting to life without Kenneth Walker, who left in free agency, with rookie Jadarian Price stepping into significant early work. That's a lot of newness for a unit that has to prove it travels the same way with different hands on the wheel, and it should keep tonight's total down. On the spread, New England added A.J. Brown to a passing game that already had its quarterback trending up, went 8-0 on the road a year ago, and is catching only a slight underdog price tonight. The larger wagers on the spread continue to lean the same way I do. Take New England with the points and the UNDER tonight.