New England at Miami

Miami got its first win of the season on October 25, 28-25 at the Jets. Malik Willis played that game without a turnover after seven in the Dolphins' first five games, and the Jets outscored Miami 18-7 after halftime. Through six games, Miami is scoring 16.3 points and allowing 26.2 per game, a scoring differential of minus 59. New England is 4-3 through seven games, scoring 22.9 and allowing 20.4 for a differential of plus 17. The Dolphins' pass defense allows 7.5 net yards per attempt, the highest in the league, and opponents have scored on 49.1% of their drives against it, also the highest. New England's passing offense is fifth in the league in a per-dropback efficiency measure that credits every throw for how much it helps the drive. The Patriots have 14 giveaways and a turnover differential of minus 7, 31st in the league. Miami has eight giveaways and a differential of minus 3, which works out to five takeaways in six games, so those mistakes have not been punished. The Dolphins' offense is 29th in efficiency per play. With a passing attack that sits fifth in that measure coming to Miami to face the league's most generous pass defense, I'm laying the points with the Patriots Sunday.