2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 22, 2004
This pick was released to clients on July 10, 2012 at 8:05PM ET.
New England at Kansas City
Monday 11/22 09:05 PM Eastern
3 units on Kansas City +3 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73) RESULT: loss
1 unit on Kansas City +150 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 2.5) RESULT: loss
Arguably the best team in the NFL strides into the unfriendly confines of Arrowhead stadium. Outside of the Pittsburgh game, the Patriots (8-1 SU, 6-1-2 ATS) have been perfect - for themselves and for bettors. Kansas City (3-6 SU and ATS) has been a major dissapointment. Many preseason prognostigators had them going to the Super Bowl this year, but instead, they are looking up to two other teams in their own division. While their offense has continued to deliver, their defense has played at least as bad as last year. Their defense is ranked 26th in the league. But, this team can score. They're putting up over 28 points per game and they have gained more offensive yards than any team in the leauge. The Patriots remain middle-of-the-road from a statistical perspective but they continue to just win games. Can the Patriots waltz into Arrowhead and beat a Priest-less Chiefs team with their back against the wall?
On the surface, things don't look good for KC. They are struggling this year and the best part of their team - Priest Holmes - is out. But this is Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night. It's going to be hellish for New England. Derrick Blaylock has proven to be a very capable replacement for Holmes. Last week he put up 186 yards agains the Saints. Priest is awesome but as is the case in Denver, a lot of the credit for this running game goes to the system and offensive line. Both of the latter will be showing up tonight. The Chiefs are not mathmatically eliminated yet from the playoffs. They will show up tonight. New England's got some serious injury problems in the secodary. You know you're in trouble when you have to put a receiver in at cornerback on nickle and dime defenses. That bodes well for Trent Green and Tony Gonzalez. New England is by far the better team but I like the situation here with KC getting points at home.
The Chiefs don't have Priest Holmes. New England is without cornerbacks Ty Law and Tyrone Poole.
Road favorites after outrushing their opponents by 100+ yards are just 30-68 ATS the spread. Monday night home underdogs that have rushed the ball very well recently against a team that has given up a lot on the ground over the past three games cover the spread over 85% of the time.
The Bottom Line
We're getting nice line value here based on New England's performance last week. While favorites, and as a result, John Q. Bettor have been having a ton of success this NFL season, I'm going to stick with what I think is the right call here and count on things returning somewhat to "normal" from an underdog/favorite perspective. We rarely get points with the Chiefs at home as they have the best home field advantage in the league and possibly in all of sports. On Monday night, it should be unbelievably loud and tough for the Patriots. This is a matchup of excellent defense vs. a great offense. KC typically does well in these situations as they are 6-1 ATS over the past three years when playing teams that give up 17 or fewer points per game. The Pats are great at home and on the road but there is a difference. They are actually allowing over 21 points per game away from Foxboro this year. KC is scoring nearly 35 at home. In Kansas City's last two home games, they have won by an average score of 56 to 23. I like KC to keep it close here and cover the spread.
***Kansas City +3 (-110) vs. New England (risk -165 to win 150)
*Kansas City straight-up (+150) vs. New England (risk 50 to win 75)