New England at Jacksonville

Jacksonville's offense showed exactly what it can be in Week 1, hanging 34 points on Cleveland without a turnover, and while a good Denver defense held the Jaguars to 13 the following week, that's a jump in competition, not evidence of anything wrong with this offense. New England's defense has allowed just eight points a game, but that came against Seattle and Pittsburgh, who combined for only 16 points across those two games, a level of competition Jacksonville simply isn't. I had the Patriots covering back in the opener against Seattle, a low-scoring slog they pulled out late, and the version of New England that shows up today gets a different matchup: a Jaguars defense that just let Denver's offense come back and win on the road, one that can be had by a team willing to sustain drives the way the Patriots did against Pittsburgh, when they controlled the ball for over 34 minutes. I like the total to climb when two offenses can move the ball against defenses that haven't been fully tested yet, and New England is live enough on the road to be worth backing on the spread, too. Take New England with the points, and bet the OVER as a Max Play.