2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 25, 2011

25

New England at Buffalo

Sunday 09/25 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: LOSS

Watching the New England offense blast its way into the end-zone with ultra-high frequency the past two weeks has the public creating a long line to get their money down on the OVER in this one. I mean why not? Brady has thrown for nearly 1000 yards in two games and has dealt seven touchdowns. He's been literally unstoppable. And, the Pats defense is not good. This one opened at 51 in a lot of shops, and has been on the rise ever since. Despite the climb, the public doesn't care. They like like high scoring games and they most certainly love the New England offense and Tom Brady. Combine that with the fact that Buffalo has produced nearly 40 points per game themselves and you have what seems to be an easy pick here. But, once things seem too easy, you can bet the value goes the other way, especially with this line movement. The value from this one has now become UNDER the total. I have a situation in this one that has generously paid dividends on the UNDER that is 48-18 the last 66 times it has arisen. How high is this total? Since 1980 there have only been three games with a total set at higher than 53 during the first three weeks of the season. The propensity of high-scoring games and the public’s sweet tooth for OVERs, has pushed this one out of site. Back the UNDER here (you might even wait to closer to game time as the total is likely to continue to push north).

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Wins Losses Units
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