Minnesota at Tampa Bay

Minnesota's defense has been outstanding early, allowing just 12.5 points a game, but its offense has been the story: 39 points in the opener against Green Bay and enough execution in a low-scoring road grind at Chicago to still get to 9. Tampa Bay's own offense isn't the problem, averaging 23 points a game even across two losses, and the issue has been on the other side of the ball, particularly with the football in its own hands. I had Cleveland covering against this same Tampa Bay defense last week, when four early turnovers turned a manageable game into a track meet, and that carelessness is exactly what makes today's number playable for the Vikings. Both offenses have shown they can put points on the board in bunches when the game opens up, and Tampa Bay's turnover issues are the kind of thing that opens a game up fast. Back the OVER today.