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Minnesota at Green Bay

November 11, 2007
img1:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
3 units on Minnesota +6 (-115) (risk 3 to return 3)

The Vikings come into Green Bay off a record-setting performance by Adrian Peterson who rushed for 296 yards against San Diego. We went big on the Vikings in that game and we like them again this week. The Packers look to keep their magic season going, and add another to the win column that already shows 7. The Vikings game starts, and ends, with running and stopping the run. They run it offensively better than any team in the NFL, and they own the #2 ranked rushing defense. It presents an interesting scenerio for this game as the Packers can't run on anyone (dead last producing 2.6 ypc). The running game took another blow last week as Ryan Grant left the game vs. the Chiefs with a concussion. Favre and the Packers are good this season. But not as good as their record indicates. They play close games for the most part, winning several at the end that could have been losses. Outside of the Giants game in week two, every game on their schedule has been decided late. Last week they won by 11 but trailed deep into the 4th quarter, and an INT for a TD made the score seem more distant than the game actually played. This is an intense divisional rivalry, and the records have proven in the past they have no bearing on the outcome. The underdog has covered in this series to the tune of 14-1-1 over the last 16! The last 10 games in this series have been decided by a total of 39 points, with only one game decided by more points than this line. Even that one was decided by just 7 points. The Vikings, now brimming with confidence, will feature a lot of Peterson. He appears to be that rare back that hits the hole fast, makes the first guy miss, and has breakaway speed. He's a legitimate threat to find his way into the endzone with each touch. It seems as teams stack against the run vs Minnesota he gets even better. The last four weeks he has had TD runs of 64, 46, 20, 67, 73 and 35 yards, so he is a real threat anywhere on the field. This is a lot of points for a divisional rivalry game, especially one that has been perhaps the most competitive of any (the last 10 games decided by an average of 3.9 points a game and no winning margin greater than 7). Our computerized matchup agrees that this line is too big. Green Bay is good but luck has been on their side and that won't continue forever. We will ride the Vikings to keep this one close.

Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers
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