This pick was released to clients on August 15, 2012 at 11:49AM ET.
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Miami at New England

December 7, 2003
img4:15 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
4 units on Miami +3 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)

The Patriots have been the league’s hottest team since week 5, having won eight straight (and covering 7 of them). Miami struggles in the cold in December, having won just 7 out of 35 on the road during the regular season in December and January over the past 15 years. The Patriots beat the Dolphins in Miami earlier this year. So it’s all Patriots in this one, right? I just love these games in which the cards appear so stacked against us. As I stated a couple of weeks ago when picking Cincinnati to upset the then-undefeated Kansas City Chiefs, NFL teams cannot play at a super-high level week-in-and-week out for very long. The Chiefs did it for 9 games and then faltered. New England has done it for eight straight weeks and I think this is the week they come back down to earth. Miami is riding high after last week’s thrashing of the NFL’s number one defense. They are coming off 10 days of rest and extra prep time. They are especially motivated by their earlier loss to New England and the “cold-weather” monkey that they would love to get off their back. New England’s wins this year have not been dominating. They are a very good team that finds ways to win but they are playing with fire. Their average margin of victory is only 4 points (not great for a 10-2 team) and two of their wins have required overtime. Minus the week one blip against Houston, Miami’s three other losses have come against teams with a combined mark of 27-9 (Tennessee, Indianapolis and New England). This is a must-win game for the Dolphins while it is a nice-to-win for the Patriots. And one last dollop of icing on the cake: The Fins are 5-1 ATS on the road this year.


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