Miami at Minnesota

Miami enters this afternoon with a 0-3 record and has allowed 28.7 points per game, 28th in the league. Minnesota is 3-0 and scores 23.7 points per game, 16th, even though it ranks last in both total yards and passing yards. Minnesota’s 39-22 win over Green Bay produced 61 points, more than any game either team has played this season, while Miami’s own games have totaled 40, 48 and 34. A plus-four turnover margin, tied for second, supplies the short fields that make up the difference. Averaging what Minnesota scores with what Miami allows puts the Vikings near 26 points. Miami is the other half of the equation, scoring 12.0 a game and tied for 31st, against a Minnesota defense that allows 13.7, second-best, which puts the Dolphins near 13. Together, those two estimates land just above the posted total. Miami’s defense has not held an opponent under 24 points. Back the OVER.