2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 02, 2011

02

Miami at Los Angeles

Sunday 10/02 04:15 PM Eastern

2 units on Miami PICK () (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: LOSS

The San Diego Chargers are no longer a mystery. We faded them successfully last week due to the obvious: They are amongst the most talented teams in the league, but they have mental lapses during games, don't take care of the ball and scramble to try and win every game. They opened the season with a deja-vu of last season, allowing a 103-yard kickoff return, and things appear to be the same in Charger-land. Phillip Rivers has caught the virus as well. He's clearly one of the top QBs in the league, but has more errant tosses (6 INTs) than he does TD passes with (4). Miami has yet to find the win column and at 0-3 their season is already on the line. A loss here and the season is gone, so I expect a big performance out of the Dolphins in this game. And, when you have a high-profile team like San Diego facing a winless team, you can be sure the line is juiced. What should be a 6-point line here is moved to the key number of 7 thanks to public perception. Miami has been a very solid play-on team when taking to the road where they have posted an 11-3-1 ATS mark for their backers in their last 15. The trick on the Chargers is to fade them early. The last five seasons they have started 1-3, 4-7-1, 2-5, 2-5 and 0-3 this year ATS, for an early season start of 9-23-1 ATS. They have followed that by catching fire, finishing 29-9-2 ATS. The Dolphins have their backs to the wall, and have been great in this spot on the road at 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a winning team. And, since Tony Sparano took reins, the Dolphins are 14-5 ATS as a road underdog! And San Diego just can't be trusted. Take Miami plus the points here.

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