2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 06, 2011

06

Miami at Kansas City

Sunday 11/06 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Miami PICK () (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: WIN

Looking at the Week 9 card, this line is the most suspicious. Here we have a struggling team in the Miami Dolphins that are 0-7 on the season that is playing on the road vs. a winning team. Yet the oddsmakers are saying that they are by and large equal teams, considering a 3-point home field advantage? The public has taken a big bite on this one with over 70% backing the Chiefs. As bad as the Dolphins have played this season, I like them here. Miami is an ugly dog that has brought home the cash in the NFL year over year. The longer a team goes winless in the NFL, the more valuable they become. Since 1989, whenever a winless team takes the field in Week 9 or later, they win against the spread over 74% of the time! The Dolphins have been the best team in the league against the number in recent years when playing on the road vs. a team with a winning record on the season where they stand at 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27. Miami is also 18-9 ATS under Tony Sparano in road games. Contrary to that success by the Dolphins, the Chiefs have been 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 as a favorite, as well as just 3-10-1 ATS as a chalk at home. We took 'em last week and it worked. Play ugly again here - take Miami.

NFL

 

Last 20.2 years

Wins Losses Units
2379 2089 +209.59

Get FREE NFL PICKS
with detailed analysis