2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 25, 2011
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Miami at Cleveland
Sunday 09/25 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Miami PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: win
3 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: loss
The Dolphins have opened up 0-2, but to their defense they have faced a pair of 2-0 opponents that look like playoff-caliber teams, and they were at least competitive in each. They faced two of the absolute best offenses in the league the past two weeks and now they finally get a below-average one. Miami can get pressure on the QB, as they brought Matt Shaub down three times last week, and Colt McCoy has proven vulnerable against pressure. The secondary won't have the likes of Andre Johnson or Wes Welker to contend with this week, which should afford them more opportunities to blitz and get added pressure on McCoy. Miami got their ground game together last week, and I expect to see them running the ball a lot here. They should also find enough success throug the air. The Browns lost to Cincinnati, and beat a truly bad Colts team, so they certainly haven't proven anything yet. Miami has been one of the best road teams in the league of under Tony Sparano, having gone 13-5 ATS in his tenure as a road dog, including 7-0 ATS as a dog of 3 or less. The Browns on the other hand, are 0-5 ATS at home in their last five in Cleveland. Cleveland gave up 27 to the Bengals and 19 to a Colts team that really has no offense right now. Miami is 14-6 OVER in their last 20 games after scoring 14 or less and the Browns have gone OVER to the tune of 11-5 in their last sixteen vs. losing teams. Take the Fins and the OVER here.
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