2021 Season NFL Football Past Picks
February 13, 2022
This pick was released to clients on February 09, 2022 at 6:47PM ET.
Los Angeles vs. Cincinnati
Sunday 02/13 06:30 PM Eastern
2 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT (risk 2 to return 3.72) RESULT: LOSS
Once again we look to take advantage of an oddsmakers' error in a prop bet on which they have miscalculated the true odds. Which half of football games sees more scoring? So far this season, we have slightly higher scoring in the second-half: The first-half has produced an average of 22.6 while the second half + OT clocked in at 23.4. But as usual, we need to dig deeper. In 55 prior Super Bowls, the average score for the first and second halves, respectively, has been 21.60 and 24.51. So we see that the second half average score is 13.5% higher. Excluding the 2012 Super Bowl in which the first-half points exactly matched the second-half points, the second-half has been the highest scoring half in 34 of 55 Super Bowls (63%). Fair odds on a 63% bet are about -178. But, it gets even better. Let's look at how things have changed over the years. The discrepancy has become more pronounced in the past few decades as this game has gotten bigger and bigger. Over the last 31 years, the scoring has been as follows: First half = 22.29 and second half = 27.36. That's a 23% difference in points! In the last 23 years, the second half has been the highest scoring half 17 times out of 23 years (74%). And, that includes a fluke pick-6 six a few years ago in the first quarter. Based on that recent history, fair odds on this bet would be -285. So, these odds are a gift we will take. Make this a Max Play.
|Los Angeles RamsRams||7||6||3||7||23|
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