2021 Season NFL Football Past Picks

February 13, 2022

This pick was released to clients on February 09, 2022 at 6:47PM ET.

13

Los Angeles vs. Cincinnati

Sunday 02/13 06:30 PM Eastern

1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th (risk 1.5 to return 4.88)  RESULT: LOSS

If all quarters were created equal, then each would have a 25% chance of being the highest scoring and fair odds on this bet would be +300. But, not all quarters are created equal. In the 2021-22 season, the average points scored for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively, was 8.5, 14.1, 9.2 and 13.8. This is pretty close to the long term averages for modern NFL games. Based on those figures, it would seem that the 2nd quarter would be the best bet for highest-scoring. And this is exactly how the oddsmakers have set the odds. The odds for betting the 2nd quarter are just +160, providing very little if any value. But there is tremendous value in taking the 4th quarter because the oddsmakers are not paying enough attention. They aren't looking enough at how Super Bowls, specifically, tend to play out. The average points per quarter for the first 55 Super Bowls are: 1st: 8.01, 2nd: 12.05, 3rd: 10.00, 4th: 13.17. Yes, the Super Bowl is different! And times - they are a changin'. In the last 32 years it's gotten even more pronounced: 1st: 8.30, 2nd: 14.08, 3rd: 11.71, 4th: 15.28. The 4th quarter has been the highest-scoring quarter in 13 of the last 26 Super Bowls (50%). At that rate, the odds you should be laying are -110. But, instead, we are getting +225 here. In terms of value, this is about as good as it gets!

FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Rams 7 6 3 7 23
Bengals 3 7 10 0 20

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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