2021 Season NFL Football Past Picks

February 13, 2022

This pick was released to clients on February 09, 2022 at 6:47PM ET.

13

Los Angeles vs. Cincinnati

Sunday 02/13 06:30 PM Eastern

1.5 units on Fourth Quarter OVER 13.5 (risk 1.5 to return 2.7)  RESULT: LOSS

If the first-quarter is the proverbial tortoise, the fourth quarter in the Super Bowl is the hare. More often than not, the final quarter has been a score-fest in the NFL, both in the regular season and, especially, in the Super Bowl. By the time the 4th quarter rolls around in this game, all the jitters are gone and it's no-holds-barred. The NFL league average in the fourth quarter (plus overtime) this season was 14.1 - a full 165% higher than the first quarter! In Rams games this year, 13.9 points were scored on average in the fourth-quarter. In Bengals games, a very high 16.1 points were scored on average. So based on those numbers, we might expect around 15.0 points in the 4th quarter of this game this year - a full point higher than where the oddsmakers set the total. However, that's not the whole story. In the Super Bowl, these averages have traditionally increased - a lot. In fact, 22 of the last 34 Super Bowl games (65%) have seen the fourth quarter go OVER the posted total. Fourteen years ago, the Pats and Giants combined for 21 fourth quarter points in a game in which just 31 total points were scored. Thirteen years ago, after seeing just 27 points scored in the first three quarters combined, 23 points were put up in the final quarter by Arizona and Pittsburgh. Twelve seasons ago, 14 points scored in the 4th quarter. Eleven years ago, the Packers and Steelers put up 18 fourth quarter points. Ten years back, the Giants and Patriots only scored 6 in a rare fourth-quarter UNDER. Nine years ago, 14 points were scored by the 49ers and Ravens, going OVER the total. Eight years ago was another rare UNDER (7 points scored) as the game was well out of hand with Seattle leading 36-8 going into the fourth so neither team was really pressing any more. Seven seasons back, things returned to form with 14 fourth-quarter points and a resulting OVER. Six years ago we saw another rare UNDER in the fourth quarter with 11 points scored. Five years ago, the Patriots put up 19 points alone to push the fourth-quarter OVER the total. Four years ago, 19 points were scored by the Patriots and Eagles. Three years back, we saw a rare UNDER with 10 points being scored, but note that the 10 fourth quarter points in the game between the Patriots and Rams represented 63% of the points scored in the entire game (16)! Two years back, Kansas City put up 21 points by themselves. Last season was a very rare win for the UNDER as no points were scored in the fourth quarter. In this game, I think these two prolific offenses (ranked #6 and #8 in the league in scoring) will be clicking by the fourth quarter, especially considering that neither of these defenses is very good (10th and 13th). I also think there's a high chance that the game will not be out of reach in the fourth quarter, leading to an urgency to score for both teams. With a 65% historical trend backing us, and a line that appears off, go with the OVER here in the 4th quarter.

FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Rams 7 6 3 7 23
Bengals 3 7 10 0 20

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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