2021 Season NFL Football Past Picks

February 13, 2022

This pick was released to clients on February 09, 2022 at 6:47PM ET.


Los Angeles vs. Cincinnati

Sunday 02/13 06:30 PM Eastern

2 units on Coin Toss Winner Will Defer (risk 2 to return 2.4)  RESULT: WIN

If you know me at all, I would never bet on the outcome of the coin toss. That's a 50-50 proposition with a negative expected value after paying the juice. While that bet is worthless, there is a bet this year that has a ton of expected value. At BetMGM you can bet on whether the winner of the coin toss will elect to kick, receive, pick a direction or defer their choice until the second half. Here's where we the value. Since the NFL changed the coin toss rules in 2008 to allow for the option to defer, 92% of the time the choice has been to defer. In the 13 Super Bowls where this rule has been in effect, the team winning the coin toss has elected to defer 12 times (coincidentally 92%). Fair odds on a 92% bet are -1150. Yet this bet is only -500. But wait - there's more. In Sean McVay's time in LA, he has won the coin toss 48 times. And he has elected to defer 48 times. In the three seasons Zac Taylor has been in charge in Cincinnati, he has deferred 26 out of 27 times he's won the toss. So for these two coaches, we are looking at 74 out of 75 which is a cool 98.7%. Fair odds for that are -7700. So we get a bet here at -500 (implying 83% chance) for something that has somewhere between a 92% and 99% chance of winning. Now, I know you may be thinking I don't want to bet something with -500 odds. Fair enough - personal choice. But as I have talked about many times, that's irrational. Why? Because laying $500 to win $100 provides a 20% return on investment - in one day. That is absolutely phenomenal. Where else can you get 20% return on your money in one day? Do you invest in stocks? The stock market historically returns 7% per year on average. That comes to 0.19% per day. 20% is over 1,000 time higher. Bet that the winner of the toss will defer.

Rams 7 6 3 7 23
Bengals 3 7 10 0 20



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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