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2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 05, 2011

05

Los Angeles at Jacksonville

Monday 12/05 08:35 PM Eastern

3 units on Jacksonville PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: loss

2 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: win

Both of these teams have been a disappointment yet again. Jack Del Rio was playing for his job this year, and after losing three of their last four to drop to 3-8 on the season, Del Rio is gone. How can the Jags, a team averaging a league-low 12.5 points per game, possibly do well with a new coach in his first game? San Diego's coach may be looking for a new gig too by the end of the season thanks to six straight losses. The Chargers are still loaded on offense so this has to be a game in which they get healthy against an overmatched Jaguars team, right? Not so fast. The Chargers are simply a bad team right now and they'll be facing what I believe is a motivated Jags team at home on Monday night. And the Jags can play defense as they are allowing just 18.2 points per game. They can also run the ball with the league's leading rusher in Maurice Jones-Drew. Norv Turner has consistently underperformed vs. bad teams, going 16-30 ATS vs. teams at .400 or worse in his career. San Diego always looks like a team that should win, but this team is poorly coached, plays lackadasical, and has a QB that has completely lost his confidence. The Chargers were one of the best teams on both sides of the ball last year, but have slid back on both offense, and considerably on defense. This team continues to get respect from the oddsmakers, even after losing 6 straight games and failing to cover any of them. I believe the change in coach will inspire Jacksonville, if anything, as players and coaches look to start fresh on the right foot. We saw this last season with Jason Garrett coming in and winning his first game outright as a 13.5 point underdog. In the month of December, NFL home dogs coming off back-to-back ATS losses have hit 66% against the spread since 1980. The Chargers defense has allowed some gaudy numbers during their skid, giving up 27.7 points per game.   Jacksonville beat Baltimore here on a Monday Night, a much better team than San Diego. The Jags also outgained Houston here last week despite the loss. Jacksonville has had a very demanding schedule facing eight opponents at or over .500. This total started low and has dropped a bit. Since Norv Turner took over in San Diego, the Chargers are 24-11 OVER when playing on the road. If coming off a home game, that figure improves to 19-5 OVER. I think the Jags offense finds enough success tonight against what has become a very porous Chargers defense. While 70% of the public is on San Diego, I'm going the other way. I like the Jags plus the points in a game that sees 40+ points scored.

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