2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 05, 2014

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

05

Los Angeles at Cincinnati

Sunday 01/05 01:00 PM Eastern

1.5 units on Cincinnati -6 (-110) (risk 1.5 to return 1.5)  RESULT: loss

1 unit on Game Total UNDER 48 -110 (risk 1 to return 1)  RESULT: win

There is certainly a lot of talk about teams that are tough to beat at home. The teams that get the press are New England and Seattle who both seem to dominate those conversations. But how about the Cincinnati Bengals? This team is a perfect 8-0 at home, but that just begins to tell the story. Their last five home games show a composite score of 208-78. That works out to a margin of victory of 26 points per game. Folks, it doesn't get any more dominating than that. We have not seen numbers like that since New England's unbeaten 2007-08 regular season. The difference is that New England team was losing momentum late in the season, while the Bengals have been building it. San Diego had the ultimate backdoor playoff entry, as they needed the "hat-trick" of events to occur and they did. The Chargers have won four straight and their defense has played much better down the stretch. However, San Diego still has no running game, which becomes a lethal liability in the playoffs. It isn't often a team survives four INTs by their QB and wins by 17 points, but that was the case last week with Cincinnati. Just 28 teams in NFL history have committed four turnovers and won by more than two TDs. That's how good this Bengals team can be at home. They have a solid defense, holding six teams to 20 or fewer at home, including just 6 points allowed to New England. It could be another long day for Phillip Rivers as the Bengals have held opposing QBs to a 60.6 passer rating in this building, while registering 24 sacks. The Bengals are now 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. And, the Chargers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games vs. high-scoring offenses like the Bengals (teams that average 24+ points per game). Andy Dalton is at his best vs. bad pass defenses like San Diego's. The Chargers have allowed opposing QBs to complete 66.4% of their passes. This is one reason they got flayed by the likes of Peyton Manning, Alex Smith and even by Michael Vick and Matt Shaub and RGIII. Dalton is 12-3 ATS vs. teams that allow 61%+ completions. Lay the points on Cincy. Also take the UNDER in this game. San Diego averages 24.7 points per game but they put up 20 or less six times this season. In their game vs. these Bengals, they managed just 10 points and that game was at home. The Bengals have held teams to 20 or less nine times this season. Under Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati is 17-5 to the UNDER after a big 14+ point win. The Lewis-led Bengals are also 26-16 UNDER when the total is set in this range (42.5 to 49). San Diego has played 9 of their last 11 games vs. conference opponents to the UNDER. Take Cincinnati and play the UNDER in this one.

FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Chargers 7 0 10 10 27
Bengals 0 10 0 0 10

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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