2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks
August 15, 2008
Las Vegas at n/a
Friday 08/15 08:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Las Vegas +4 (-115) (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: WIN
The NFL is often about what happened last week, even in the preseason. Sometimes all it takes for the general public to jump on a team is to watch a team the week before, or read about how great they were. They then line up to jump on that team's bandwagon the following week. So after Tennessee posts a whopping 34-13 victory in week one, immediately the oddsmakers react with anticipation and post the Titans as the biggest chalk of week two. ESPN has been showing highlights of running backs Quinton Ganther and Chris Johnson tearing things up all week. The nice thing for us is that the public immediately latched on and pushed the line up even higher than where it opened. Why not jump on Tennessee here? They carved up St. Louis for 340 yards on the ground and treated the scoreboard like a preseason pinball machine. Here is why this line has value - on Oakland. Tennessee proved in a convincing fashion that they can move the ball on the ground. So how are they entering week two? Are they saying to themselves that since they can run the ball 40 times and win, that they should stick with that forumla? No! This is preseason and that's why it is, in fact, the exact opposite. We believe they are instead going to work on the passing game this week. So what happened last week will not be a factor here in the game, but it is in the line. The fact is Vince Young was 3 for 6 for 17 yards, and overall the Titans QB trio hit just 50% for a paltry six yards per attempt. Jeff Fisher is no fool and he realizes they have to find a passing game or teams will line up eight in the box when the season starts, and the offense will be turning the ball over to the punting game. So we expect Fisher to shift gears here and work on his passing game more. Oakland kept San Francisco out of the end-zone last week, so the points won't be lighting up this week for Tennessee as they did last week. This line shows tremendous value, as the false expectations of game two for Tennessee were created by game one, and we expect a different game and different outcome.