2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 30, 2007
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Las Vegas at Miami
Sunday 09/30 01:00 PM Eastern
4 units on Miami -3.5 (-104) (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: LOSS
Since when is an 0-3 team favored by more than a field goal? Since when is there actual line value on that favored loser? When they're playing the Raiders at home of course! The Dolphins really aren't that bad (have lost two of three by a FG). The Raiders have gotten some attention in recent weeks. Yes, they went on the road and took Denver to OT and then came back and beat Cleveland. But we don't believe they are tremendously improved over last year's 2-win team. The Broncos always struggle with Oakland and got caught thinking the game was over at 17-3. They had 26 first downs vs. 11 for Oakland and had outgained the Raiders 441 to 253. And Cleveland is, well, Cleveland. Remember this same Raider team was down to the Lions 17-0 before losing by 15. And they have dropped 12 straight road games by an average of 15.5 points per game! Last week they lost QB Josh McCown, who made some mistakes but moved the team. That means Dante Culpepper will be at QB for Oakland. Culpepper got all of four starts with Miami last year and was ineffective. Without Randy Moss to huck the ball deep to, Culpepper has never been more than an average QB. Miami is winless but they have scored a lot more this year with Trent Green directing the offense (they rank #14 in the NFL). Despite a 2-14 record, Oakland's defense last year was awesome. This year it has regressed as they sit near the bottom of the NFL at #27. Miami has a good history against Oakland, as they have won and covered the last six meetings. The Raiders must make the coast-to-coast trip to Miami, where teams playing on the early slate have covered just 40% of the time in the past five years. These Raiders are just 12-23 ATS overall the past three seasons. We like Miami to notch their first win of the season, and get the cover.
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