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2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 24, 2011

24

Las Vegas at Kansas City

Saturday 12/24 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Las Vegas PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

The Kansas City Chiefs did what no other team has been able to do this season, as they beat the Green Bay Packers last week. That should make a bad team flat for this one at home vs. a Raiders team starved for a win. Despite that win (we were on the Chiefs), Kansas City remains a bad, overrated team. On the season they show six wins but the reality is that based on their points scored and allowed, they should have about 3 wins. The Packers were overrated and susceptible to a loss if turnovers didn't go their way. And that's what happened. After celebrating last week's win over Green Bay like they had won the Super Bowl (Gatorade bath and all), I expect KC to come back down to earth this week. Let's not forget this team averages under 14 points per game so laying points in any scenario is fraught with risk. Oakland has dropped three straight since starting 7-4, and now have to chase down the Broncos who have taken over the lead in the AFC West. Last week was a heartbreaker, losing to Detroit by a single point on a late fourth quarter drive. The Chiefs moved to 6-8 with their win, but that wasn't a cure all by any means. This is a team that has scored all of 64 points in their last seven games, or 9.1 points per game, which hardly represents the offense of a favorite. What might be more eye opening the fact that they have been outscored 149-64 or by over 12 ppg. One game does not a season make, but apparently the oddsmakers think so here. Oakland has gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 in the division and they are a perfect 8-0 ATS the past three seasons on the road in division games. Meanwhile the Chiefs stand with bankrupted followers at 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 as a home favorite. Play on the better team - Oakland.

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