2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 23, 2008
Las Vegas at Denver
Sunday 11/23 04:05 PM Eastern
3 units on Las Vegas +9 (-109) (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: WIN
Denver is laying near double-digits? Hmmmm. Denver is 6-4 but this is not a 6-4 team. They were handed a win by Ed Hoculi in September and recorded close wins vs. New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Cleveland - all three of which could have easily been losses. They have given up 30+ points four times already and on the season and have scored fewer points (248) than they have allowed (271). I'm not saying Denver is a horrible team. They are simply a .500 team that has gotten a bit lucky, and laying this many points in a division game is out of whack. Their upset win vs. Atlanta last week sets this game up nicely as it gives Broncos-backers reason to believe. And, no one wants to be on Oakland right now. The Raiders certainly have their issues, but they have usually played Denver close, even at Mile High, even when the talent difference is bigger than it is this year. In the earlier meeting, Denver won in a blowout which means the Broncos could be a little overconfident and Oakland will be motivated to atone. While they lost, I was impressed by Oakland's showing vs. Miami last week. I think their offense will have success against this porous Denver defense. Denver has lost 67% of their home games ATS the past decade vs. losing teams and dating back to last year, they are 3-12 ATS as a favorite. I like Oakland to keep this close.