2020 Season NFL Football Past Picks
February 07, 2021
This pick was released to clients on January 28, 2021 at 4:28PM ET.
Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Sunday 02/07 06:30 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th (risk 1.5 to return 4.29) RESULT: LOSS
If all quarters were created equal, then each would have a 25% chance of being the highest scoring and fair odds on this bet would be +300. But, not all quarters are created equal. In the 2020-21 season, the average points scored for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively, was 9.6, 15.2, 9.8 and 14.1. This is pretty close to the long term averages for modern NFL games. Based on those figures, it would seem that the 2nd quarter would be the best bet for highest-scoring. And this is exactly how the oddsmakers have set the odds. The odds for betting the 2nd quarter are just +150, providing very little if any value. But there is tremendous value in taking the 4th quarter because the oddsmakers are not paying enough attention. They aren't looking enough at how Super Bowls, specifically, tend to play out. The average points per quarter for the first 54 Super Bowls are: 1st: 7.97, 2nd: 11.96, 3rd: 9.94, 4th: 13.41. Yes, the Super Bowl is different! In the last 31 years it's gotten even more pronounced: 1st: 8.28, 2nd: 13.99, 3rd: 11.67, 4th: 15.77. The 4th quarter has been the highest-scoring quarter in 13 of the last 25 Super Bowls (52%). At that rate, the odds you should be laying are -108. But, instead, we are getting +186 here. In terms of value, this is about as good as it gets!
|Kansas City ChiefsChiefs||3||3||3||0||9|
|Tampa Bay BuccaneersBuccaneers||7||14||10||0||31|
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