This pick was released to clients on August 15, 2012 at 11:50AM ET.
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Kansas City at Denver

December 7, 2003
img4:15 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
4 units on Denver -3 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)

Both teams are motivated in this one but I give the nod to Denver. Despite being outplayed, Kansas City won the first contest in a game that triggered Denver’s collapse after a 4-0 start. Denver has been looking forward to this game since the final tick of the clock in that first one eight weeks ago. In a way, this is Denver’s Super Bowl for 2003. You can bet the Broncs will be fired up and play their best game of the season on Sunday. As I’ve mentioned before, Kansas City isn’t as good as their 11-1 record suggests. Their defense is suspect and they’ve won some squeakers. My Matchup Power Ratings indicate Denver should be closer to a six point favorite here. The Broncos are tough to figure out this year, but this I know: They have the talent to beat any team in the league. This is a game in which I think they will play at a high-enough level to do it. Clinton Portis, who found his groove last week with 170 yards on the ground, should be able to run all over the NFL’s 27th ranked rushing defense. The Chiefs game-plan will be to get up early to take Denver out of its running game. However, they will be facing the league’s 2nd best defense. December home favorites that are having mediocre years cover the spread about 75% of the time when facing very good teams. Also, Denver qualifies for a trend involving small home favorites coming off a game in which they found their running game that is 16-1 ATS the last several years.


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