2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 18, 2011

18

Jacksonville at New York

Sunday 09/18 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Jacksonville PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: loss

2 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: win

The Jets had a big win last week vs. Dallas where they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. There is no way the Jets should have sniffed a win in that game, but they got it, leading to some overvalue this week. It was somewhat of a surprising game for New York as their defense is their calling card and Tony Romo torched their secondary for 326 yards and a pair of TDs. The offense, which is run-first, passed for over 300 yards and the ground game was held in check the entire game. That leaves a lot of question marks as to who are the Jets this year. I think the Dallas success forced them to the air, but I expect that they focus on the ground this week. Jacksonville surprised everyone by releasing David Garrard right before the season. Luke McCown has become the heir apparent and he managed the game very well vs. the Titans last week, committing no turnovers. The offense spear-headed by the running of Jones-Drew pounded the ball 47 times for the win. I expect that the Jags are going to be playing that way all season. Try to play mistake free on offense, shorten games and allow an improved defense to give them a chance late. That Jags defense held Chris Johnson to 2 yards rushing in the opener. Jacksonville is very much an under the radar team, covering 7 of their last 10 games and have been Jets killers as they are 6-0 ATS vs. New York, including 4-0 ATS in New York. The Jets start slow having covered the spread in just 10 of their last 32 September games. The Jets are 20-8 UNDER in their last 28 games following a game in which they allowed 300+ passing yards. I expect the Jets defense to have a chip on their shoulder this week. I look for this to be a ground war, with Jacksonville getting the money, and the game playing UNDER the total.

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Wins Losses Units
2330 2048 +201.22

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