Jacksonville at Cincinnati

Joe Burrow completed 28 of 37 passes for 282 yards and three touchdowns at Pittsburgh last Sunday, and Cincinnati still lost 27-30. Before that, the Bengals beat Tampa Bay 33-27 and won at Houston 20-6, so the offense has scored 27 or more in two of three games, and the defense held Houston to 6. Jacksonville has the league’s lowest-scoring defense at 12.0 points a game, and that's been the case against this side. It was built against Cleveland, Denver and New England, who rank 21st, 22nd and tied for 31st in scoring, and Jacksonville’s one road game was a 13-20 loss at Denver. Cincinnati lists cornerback DJ Turner and three safeties as questionable, which is the risk on its side, and Jacksonville’s turnover margin of plus four, tied for second, is the other. Cincinnati scores 26.7 points a game (12th), and Jacksonville’s 27.3 (10th) is close enough that the schedules behind the defensive numbers decide this one. Cincinnati is the right side on the spread, and I don’t expect this one to need the number.