2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 15, 2011

15

Jacksonville at Atlanta

Thursday 12/15 08:25 PM Eastern

3 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

Last week the normally punchless Jaguars hung 41 points on Tampa Bay. It didn't hurt that the Bucs have lost seven straight games and in four of their last five they have allowed +35 points. But let's be clear: that 41 was simply an anomoly. Jacksonville wasn't exactly an offensive force in the game, gaining just 325 total yards on 66 plays at less than 5 yards per play. Let's not forget that this team had not scored over 20 points all season and has gone for 14 or less in nine of their last 11 before the Tampa Bay game. The Falcons may not be great on defense, but over their last 11 regular season home games they have allowed less than 20 points per game, including games vs. Green Bay, Philadelphia, and a pair with New Orleans, along with Carolina this year. So, there's no doubt they can hold down the Jags who average just 11.2 points per game on the road. The Falcons aren't a big scoring team. Seven of their last eight games have gone UNDER the total. While the Jaguars are little threat on offense, the defense has carried them all season. They have held eight teams to 20 points or fewer, and have played 12 of their 13 games UNDER the total. They have also played each of their last six on the road to the UNDER. The Falcons are a picture perfect 7-0 to the UNDER following a win this season, and the last four meetings between these clubs show a perfect 4-0 to the UNDER as well. Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 15-6 to the UNDER when facing a bad passing team like Jacksonville (teams under 62% completion rate), 12-3 UNDER in non-conference games and 14-4 UNDER following a high-scoring affair in which 50+ points were scored last game. Jaguars road games have averaged just 28.9 total points per game this season! Take the UNDER here.

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