2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 26, 2014
This pick was released to clients on October 24, 2014 at 12:52PM ET.
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh
Sunday 10/26 04:25 PM Eastern
1 unit on Pittsburgh +4 (-105) (risk 1 to return 1.95) RESULT: WIN
The Colts are riding super-high and as a result, the public is backing this team off the charts this week. Well you know what they sell about buy low... sell high. This is the second straight home game for the Steelers after that brutal stretch playing four of five away, yet they are a dog. Pittsburgh has strong all-around numbers at #8 in the NFL in passing, #9 in rushing the football on offense, and the young defense is solid. QB Ben Roethlisberger ranks #6 in the AFC with a 96.0 passer rating — a rating consistent through most of his career — and has completed 65.9% of his passes with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record. They come off a nice Monday night win and face the Colts who are winners of five in a row, but are facing a balanced Pittsburgh attack. Indy just played three of the last four at home and this is now hostile territory and the Colts have allowed 25.3 points per game this season outside the dome. The Steelers are 9-4 ATS on grass and 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against a team with a winning road record, yet they are a home dog. They shouldn't be. This is the kind of game in which Mike Tomlin excels. Under Tomlin, the Steelers are 13-5 ATS at home vs. good offensive teams like the Colts (those averaging 5.7+ yards per play). Take the points with the live home dog.
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